DefinePK

Research Objective

To estimate the amounts of Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), Potassium (K), Calcium (Ca), Sulfur (S), and Gypsum embodied in selected agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, cotton, and sugarcane) across the provinces of Pakistan for the 2021-22 period, and to calculate the net virtual nutrient flows between provinces to identify net importers and exporters.

Methodology

The study analyzed production and consumption data for five major agricultural commodities (wheat, rice, maize, cotton, and sugarcane) across Pakistan's provinces for the 2021-22 period. Data on crop area, production, and yield were obtained from the Ministry of National Food Security and Research. Consumption data was sourced from the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2018-19, with per capita consumption converted to annual consumption and multiplied by provincial population figures. Fertilizer usage data was obtained from the Agriculture Policy Institute (API) publications, and nutrient content of fertilizers was sourced from fertilizer companies. Macro-nutrients considered were Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), Potassium (K), Calcium (Ca), Sulfur (S), and Gypsum. Virtual nutrient flows were calculated by determining nutrients used in production and nutrients consumed per province, then subtracting consumption from production to find the net virtual nutrient availability.

Methodology Flowchart

                        graph TD
    A["Data Collection: Production, Consumption, Fertilizer Data"] --> B["Standardize Data Units"];
    B --> C["Calculate Nutrients Used in Production"];
    B --> D["Calculate Nutrients Consumed"];
    C --> E["Calculate Net Virtual Nutrient Availability"];
    D --> E;
    E --> F["Analyze Interprovincial Nutrient Flows"];
    F --> G["Identify Net Importers and Exporters"];
    G --> H["Draw Conclusions and Recommendations"];                    

Discussion

Punjab and Sindh, as leading exporters of agricultural commodities and users of chemical fertilizers, contribute significantly to virtual nutrient exports. Provinces like KP and Baluchistan, with lower production and fertilizer consumption, depend on imports, creating economic and resource dependency. The removal of fertilizer subsidies could increase input costs for net-exporting regions, impacting profitability and soil nutrient depletion. Imperfect markets and poor supply chains exacerbate fertilizer shortfalls and price volatility, particularly in KP and Baluchistan due to weaker supply chains.

Key Findings

Punjab is identified as a major nutrient-exporting province for all analyzed crops, particularly for rice. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Baluchistan are primarily net importers of virtual nutrients. Sindh shows a mixed trend, being a net importer for wheat and maize but a net exporter for sugarcane, cotton, and rice. Nitrogen and Phosphorus are the major nutrients being imported by Sindh, KP, and Baluchistan for wheat production. Punjab's nutrient surplus supports the nutrient needs of other provinces for wheat cultivation.

Conclusion

Punjab is the primary exporter of virtual nutrients across all analyzed crops in Pakistan, acting as the nation's breadbasket. KP and Baluchistan are net importers of virtual nutrients for most major commodities. Sindh exhibits a dual role as both an importer and exporter. Continued nutrient export from Punjab without adequate replenishment strategies could lead to soil depletion. The economic and food reliance of importing regions on exporting ones necessitates adequate nutrient management strategies to ensure national food security and export earnings.

Fact Check

1. Nutrient Export: Punjab is identified as a major nutrient-exporting province for all analyzed crops.
2. Nutrient Import: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan are identified as primarily net importers of virtual nutrients.
3. Fertilizer Use: Pakistan's nitrogen application (112.89 kg/ha) is approximately 73% higher than the world average (65.5 kg/ha).

Mind Map