DefinePK

Research Objective

To investigate the response of wheat yield under changing climatic variables using the DSSAT-ICSim model and to analyze the effect of different temperatures and wind speeds on obtained yield and the wheat life cycle in the arid region of Chakwal.

Methodology

The study utilized the ECMWF dataset from 1979 to 2005, including 2m temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, and u-v winds. Soil characteristics of the experimental site (sandy clay loam) were analyzed. The DSSAT 4.6 crop growth model was employed, with simulations initiated using site-specific requirements and then modified by varying temperature and wind speed parameters (SDev.2, SDev.3, SDev.4) derived from the standard deviation of the 26-year weather data.

Methodology Flowchart

                        graph TD;
    A["Collect ECMWF Dataset 1979-2005"] --> B["Analyze Soil Characteristics"];
    B --> C["Prepare DSSAT Model Inputs"];
    C --> D["Run Initial DSSAT Simulation"];
    D --> E["Modify Temperature and Wind Speed Parameters"];
    E --> F["Run Modified DSSAT Simulations"];
    F --> G["Analyze Results: Crop Cycle, Yield, Phenology"];
    G --> H["Draw Conclusions and Recommendations"];                    

Discussion

The findings highlight the susceptibility of arid regions to extreme temperatures and changing wind speeds, which negatively impact wheat production. The study emphasizes that a shortened growing season due to climate change ultimately reduces crop yield. The research suggests that increasing wind speed can increase biomass production, potentially due to lodging, which reduces grain yield.

Key Findings

Climate factors, specifically temperature and wind speed, negatively affected wheat phenology and yield in arid regions. High-temperature ranges and increasing wind intensity contributed negatively to overall wheat performance. A projected increase in maximum temperature by 1.95°C and minimum temperature by 1.98°C, along with a wind speed increase to 14.38 km/h, reduced the crop cycle by 7 days and decreased yield by 12.73%. Extreme conditions (SDev.4) led to a 38.84% yield reduction and shortened the crop duration to 120 days.

Conclusion

Arid areas are more susceptible to extreme temperatures and high wind speeds in the future, posing a significant danger to wheat production in the Potohar region of Pakistan. Adaptive measures, including the development of wheat cultivars tolerant to temperature extremes and wind intensity, are necessary. Modifying cultivation practices, such as delaying sowing, is also recommended.

Fact Check

- The study used ECMWF dataset from 1979 to 2005. (Confirmed in text)
- Under optimum climatic conditions, the crop duration was noted as 145 days, and the predicted yield was 3047 kg/ha. (Confirmed in text)
- An increase in maximum temperature by about 1.95°C, followed by a minimum temperature increase of 1.98°C and a wind speed increase to 14.38 km/h, reduced the crop cycle from 145 to 138 days, and decreased crop yield by 12.73%. (Confirmed in text)

Mind Map