DefinePK

Research Objective

To examine how socioeconomic variables affected the fertility rate in Somalia between 1990 and 2020.

Methodology

The study applied a vector error correction model (VECM) to analyze annual time series data from 1990 to 2020. Data sources included the World Bank and the Statistical, Economic, and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries. Variables analyzed were Total Fertility Rate (TFR), GDP per capita (GDPP), Female Labour Force Participation rate (FLP), Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), and Urban Population rate (UP). Stationarity was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and cointegration was assessed using the Johansen method.

Methodology Flowchart

                        graph TD
    A["Data Collection World Bank, SESRIC"] --> B["Variable Identification: TFR, GDPP, FLP, IMR, UP"];
    B --> C["Stationarity Test"ADF""];
    C -- Non-stationary at Level --> D["First Differencing"];
    C -- Stationary at Level --> D;
    D --> E["Cointegration Test"Johansen""];
    E -- Cointegration Present --> F["Vector Error Correction Model VECM Estimation"];
    E -- No Cointegration --> G["VAR Model Not used in this study"];
    F --> H["Analysis of Long-term and Short-term Coefficients"];
    H --> I["Model Diagnostic Tests"];
    I --> J["Conclusion and Recommendations"];                    

Discussion

The study's findings suggest that while socioeconomic factors significantly influence fertility rates in Somalia, this influence is primarily observed over the long term. The positive correlation between infant mortality and fertility rates indicates a potential feedback loop where higher child mortality might lead to higher birth rates to compensate. Conversely, economic development (GDP per capita) and increased female participation in the workforce are associated with lower fertility rates, aligning with global trends. The lack of short-term effects suggests that changes in these socioeconomic factors do not immediately translate into changes in fertility behavior.

Key Findings

Socioeconomic factors have a long-term effect on Somalia's fertility rate. Specifically, Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has a significant positive long-term impact, while GDP per capita (GDPP) and Female Labour Force Participation rate (FLP) have significant negative long-term impacts. Urban Population rate (UP) showed a non-significant negative effect in the long term. Socioeconomic factors did not have a significant short-term impact on fertility rates in Somalia.

Conclusion

Socioeconomic determinants have a significant long-term influence on fertility rates in Somalia. Policies aimed at improving female empowerment through workforce participation and education, enhancing the standard of living, and improving child health are recommended to reduce fertility rates.

Fact Check

1. The study period is from 1990 to 2020. (Confirmed in Abstract and Methods section)
2. Female labour force participation and GDP per capita were found to have a long-term, significant negative impact on Somalia's fertility rate. (Confirmed in Abstract and Findings section)
3. The VECM model's R-squared value was 99.3%, indicating a high explanatory power of the included variables for the variation in the total fertility rate. (Confirmed in Findings section)

Mind Map