DefinePK

Research Objective

To examine the influences of changing land use and land cover on the land surface temperature (LST) of the Lahore metropolitan area, specifically investigating the impact of urbanization on agricultural land and LST.

Methodology

The study utilized satellite images from LSAT-5 (TM) and LSAT-8 (OLI) to calculate land temperature and features. ERDAS imagine-14 software was used for image processing and supervised classification to determine major land features. A Persistence Matrix, a GIS analysis, was employed to track changes in land use over time. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) were used for econometric analysis of time series data from 1990 to 2021.

Methodology Flowchart

                        graph TD
    A["Acquire LSAT-5 & LSAT-8 Satellite Images"] --> B["Process Images in ERDAS Imagine-14"];
    B --> C["Perform Supervised Classification"];
    C --> D["Calculate Land Cover Land Use LCLU Areas"];
    D --> E["Estimate Land Surface Temperature LST using Thermal Bands"];
    E --> F["Construct Persistence Matrix in ArcMap"];
    F --> G["Collect Time Series Data 1990-2021"];
    G --> H["Perform Unit Root Test"];
    H --> I["Determine Optimal Lag Length"VAR Test""];
    I --> J["Estimate ARDL Model"];
    J --> K["Estimate Error Correction Model ECM"];
    K --> L["Conduct Diagnostic Tests Heteroskedasticity, Serial Correlation, Ramsey RESET"];
    L --> M["Analyze CUSUM and CUSUMQ Tests for Coefficient Stability"];
    M --> N["Draw Conclusions and Formulate Policy Recommendations"];                    

Discussion

The research highlights the detrimental effects of urban sprawl on agricultural land and the consequent increase in land surface temperature in Lahore. This conversion of green space to built-up areas contributes to environmental degradation and poses a threat to the city's food supply. The findings suggest that current urban planning policies are inadequate in preserving agricultural land and mitigating the negative environmental impacts of urbanization.

Key Findings

Urbanization in Lahore has accelerated significantly between 1990 and 2021, leading to a substantial loss of agricultural land. The study found a significantly positive relationship between rapid urbanization (increase in covered area) and land surface temperature (LST), while agricultural land area showed an inverse relationship with LST.

Conclusion

The study concludes that rapid urbanization in Lahore is directly linked to increased land surface temperature and a decrease in cultivable land. This trend has significant implications for the environment, food security, and climate change. The authors recommend developing new metropolises on uncultivable land and implementing stronger urban planning policies to protect agricultural productivity and mitigate climate variations.

Fact Check

* The covered area of Lahore's metropolitan city increased by 97 percent from 1990 to 2021.
* During the study period (1990-2021), Lahore's cultivable land shrank from 1047 square kilometers to 664 square kilometers.
* The ARDL model indicated that a 1% increase in covered area raises LST by 62.8 percent, and a 1% increase in crop residue burn area raises LST by 65 percent.

Mind Map