DefinePK

Abstract

The objective of this work was to project the evolution of bovine brucellosis in an 11-years period in Kuku Dairy Scheme, Khartoum North, Sudan. The prevalence was estimated in the baseline year and the required data on other parameters were obtained from primary and secondary sources. Two scenarios were projected; in the first one, the animal population was considered to grow at the rate obtained from the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries while in the second, the population was held constant over the study period. The deterministic transmission model of Zinsstag et al. (2005) was modified and used as an analytical framework. The study revealed in the first scenario that the number of susceptible animals will increase from 8,798 in the baseline year, 2004, to 14,384 head in the final year, 2014, with a growth rate of 63.5%. The number of sero-positive animals will also increase from 1,508 to 3,064 head with a growth rate of 103.2%. The incidence of the disease is 154 heads in the initial year, this number changes over the 11 years to 563 with a growth rate of 265.6%. In the second scenario, the incidence is 166; it changes over the 11 years to 1,008 with a growth rate of 507.2% The number of sero-positive animals will increase from 1,508 to 5,400 head with a growth rate of 258.1%. The number of the susceptible animals will decrease over time as result of new infections. It will decrease from 8,798 to 4,906 head with a growth rate of -44.2%. It can be concluded that brucellosis will evolve in the scheme until all animals become infected if no control strategies adopted. More investigations on the impact of the disease on fertility and its control are recommended.