DefinePK

Abstract

Inrecentyears, development of applied mathematical method sin various spheres of economy included the principles of research borrowed from natural sciences: evolution, selection, and adaptation. These principles allow viewing the systems as self-organizing and self-adapting to changes of external environment. Attraction of principles of development of live organisms in the study of socio-economic systems allowed studying these systems in view of complex dynamics of their functioning in time. As of now, dynamics methods of forecasting and dynamic forecasting are paid a lot of attention in Russia and abroad. Based on the method of statistical identification, which uses the theory of self-organizing systems, the authors build a many-factor model of interconnection between car transport and its system of study. The article views principles and the technology of development of this model and describes stages of its creation. The initial information for the model is given in the form of a range of average annual parameters of functioning of car transport and its informational provision, including the complex of parameters of the system of training (incoming parameters), system of management of car transport, and outgoing parameters.