DefinePK

Abstract

The methods of developing decision support systems for localization, mitigation and possible elimination of emergencies consequences (terroristic assaults, accidents, explosions, fires, etc.) that are possible in educational institutions are discussed in the article. Fuzzy cognitive maps are discussed as the basis for the development of decision support systems for emergencies. Such systems application features and methods of learning for management development models are studied in the article. The use of management models enables carrying early recognition of a possibility of an emergency occurrence on the base of vague and inconsistent information, as well as allows predicting the most probable scenario of its development. A decision support system allows generating of emergency elimination plans real-time by using available force, measures and resources optimally. Implementation of the system of support of managerial decisions is considered by the example of fire safety of educational institutions. In the framework of the cognitive approach the basic factors (concepts) that define the state of fire safety have been identified and their causal and investigative links have been established. On this basis, built a cognitive model of fire safety and proven its stability. With its help, using pulse simulation explored scenarios of changes in condition of fire security under the action of destabilizing and control actions. Proved the efficiency of application of cognitive technologies for optimal management strategies of fire safety and reduce fire risks. Cognitive modeling allows predicting the effectiveness of management decisions. The proposed modeling approach for fire safety applicable to public buildings for any purpose.