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Role of modified Gail model in breast cancer risk prediction in Pakistani


Article Information

Title: Role of modified Gail model in breast cancer risk prediction in Pakistani

Authors: Fatima Arif, Syed Talha Hassan Gilani

Journal: Journal of Breast Disease & Research

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Year: 2023

Volume: 1

Issue: 2

Language: en

Keywords: PakistanRisk assessmentBreast Cancermodified Gail modelindividualized screening

Categories

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to assess the effectiveness of a modified Gail model in identifying high-risk groups among Pakistani women, guiding tailored screening and early detection interventions.
Methodology: This cross-sectional study was conducted at the Federal Breast Screening Center, Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, Islamabad, spanning one year. A consecutive sampling technique enrolled 1830 women meeting the inclusion criteria. Ethical clearance was obtained, and participants meeting inclusion criteria underwent risk assessment with the modified Gail model. Imaging studies utilized BI-RADS for lesion categorization. The combined predictive strength of BI-RADS and the modified Gail model was analyzed against pathological findings.
Results: This research, involving 1830 women, intricately explores the interplay between Gail scores and BI-RADS distribution for a comprehensive understanding of breast cancer risk. Unveiling distinctive patterns, the study identifies 101 women at high risk over a 5-year period, necessitating vigilant monitoring due to heightened risk factors integrated by the modified Gail model. Conversely, the majority of 815 women fall into the low-risk BIRADS, enabling tailored yet standard screening protocols. Lifetime risk assessment identifies 272 high-risk individuals, warranting personalized surveillance, while 642 low-risk women require routine screening. BI- RADS distribution provides further context, with 718 cases in BIRADS I indicating normal ultrasound findings, and 486 cases in BIRADS II signifying benign lesions
. BIRADS III with 266 cases aligns with Gail model nuances, and BIRADS IV with 242 cases suggest findings suspicious for malignancy, correlating with elevated Gail model risk. Categories V (118 cases) demand immediate attention, aligning with high-risk Gail score groups. Integration of Gail scores and BI-RADS categories allows nuanced risk stratification for tailored screening. In conclusion, this research offers valuable insights, emphasizing the importance of a multifaceted approach to breast cancer risk assessment for improved patient outcomes on a global scale.
Conclusion: The study emphasizes the importance of continued research to modify the modified Gail model for optimal efficiency in the Pakistani setting. As breast cancer continues to have an influence on public health, the modified Gail model appears to be a potential method for individualized risk assessment. This study contributes to the discourse on refining risk assessment models in developing countries with resource limitations and evolving epidemiological challenges.


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