DefinePK

Abstract

In this paper, the researchers reassess the causality between oil prices and exchange rates by applying the parametric quantile analysis to decomposed oil prices shocks and exchange rates returns data of both low income, emerging and developed oil exporting countries from 1993.11 to 2021.10.  Unlike the existing researches  using the causality in  quantile  analysis, our study outcomes support  the causal relationship from exchange rates to oil prices shocks  at upper and lower quantiles in developed oil exporting countries; this is also true regarding the bidirectional causality observed in low income and emerging oil exporting countries .These findings imply that, important positive and negative oil shocks cause extremes changes in the exchange rate  returns of low income and emerging oil exporting  countries and reciprocally. However only extreme fluctuations of exchange rate returns of developed oil exporting countries such as Norway and Canada can cause oil prices variations. The results of non-causality at middle quantiles also suggest that the monetary authorities in both developing and developed oil exporting countries resist the exchange rates adjustments when oil prices fluctuations are significant. From these results we recommend sound policies in order to mitigate internal and external shocks during crisis, structural reforms that support diversification of energy production by developing other energy sources and reduce crude oil dependence, as well as the whole economy diversification mostly for developing countries and finally, multiple exchange rates to diversify portfolio and hedge the risks associated to oil prices fluctuations for investors.
Keywords: Exchange Rates, Oil Prices Shocks, Quantile Causality.