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Abstract

This study examined the effect of exchange rate dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria from 1985 to 2021. The study utilized secondary data sources from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. It employed real gross domestic product as a measure of economic growth. In addition to the official exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate dynamics, the study integrated other domestic factors that can affect economic growth, such as trade openness and external reserves. The econometric techniques employed in the study were unit root tests, cointegration, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)/bound techniques. Following the outcome of the bound test, it was reported that a long-run relationship exists between economic growth, exchange rate, trade openness, and external reserves. The long-run ARDL results reveal that the exchange rate had a positive and statistically significant effect on real GDP in Nigeria, with a unit increase in the exchange rate raising the real GDP by 0.3986 units in the long run; trade openness had a positive and not statistically significant impact on real GDP in Nigeria, suggesting that a unit increase in trade openness increases real GDP by 0.0025 units in the long run; and external reserves had a positive and statistically significant impact on real GDP in Nigeria, indicating that a unit increase in external reserves increases real GDP by 0.4007 units in the long run. Based on the results, the study recommends that the government should develop policies that stabilize the exchange rate. This could involve enhancing foreign exchange reserves management, improving the transparency and predictability of foreign exchange interventions, and possibly considering a more flexible exchange rate regime that can adapt to external shocks while maintaining stability. Policies should focus on gradually opening up the economy to international trade through strategic trade agreements that protect key domestic industries while promoting sectors where Nigeria has a competitive advantage. This approach will help mitigate any negative short-term impacts while capitalizing on long-term benefits.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Trade Openness, External Reserves and Real Gross Domestic Product.