DefinePK

Abstract

The ecological systems are being transformed radically on account of climatic change, with the movement of animals being one of the most noticeably disturbed phenomena. Changes in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and climatic extremes alter the timing, path and patterns of the behaviour of migratory species across taxes. In this research work, stochastic nonlinear modeling will be deployed in the attempt of examining the effects of environmental noise and bifurcations in climate variables, as well as threshold dynamics on the animal migration patterns. By combining climate models with field-based telemetry and behavioral data we also show that migration patterns are growing more erratic, being altered to more Department and pole-ward or high altitude destinations and that the traditional behavioral cues are being subsumed by the climate variability. Stochastic differential equations modeling system forming consideration of nonlinear multiplicative-noise interactions and delayed feedback are established to model migration thresholds in response to altering environmental forcing. The simulation results are corroborated with the telemetry data belonging to Arctic terns, monarch butterflies, and caribou, which show that the variability of migratory timing and the bifurcation point of migration routes is uplifted. Such results may imply a new regime of an already changing ecology, in which significant changes in climatic variables trigger enhanced biological response as an equivalent of a stochastic resonance. The results in our analysis offer a window to understanding how uncertainties driven by climate transfer through ecological systems providing the basis of predictive conservation modelings and adaptive management of ecological systems.