DefinePK

Abstract

The developing countries face the difficulty of energy demand forecasting due to not having adequate facilities and the types of equipment required. Pakistan also deals with such challenges when it comes to developing strategies to meet energy supply and demand. One possible approach to estimate the future demands could be to look for the per capita consumption of other advanced and developed countries by comparing values taken from historic and current statistical data.
This research compares the historic growth in energy demand within Pakistan from 1973-2015 against advanced and neighbouring economies of the world. It uses these figures to predict the likely unfulfilled and unmet demand per capita for energy of Pakistan, both at present and up to 2050. Further, the domestic sector electrical energy consumption, especially of the province of Punjab, is compared with Service-led, industry-led & mixed economies of the world. The results show that  Pakistan’s current per capita consumption is far less than the advanced economies.
Pakistan would consume 2237.5 Mtoe, 874 Mtoe & 429.5 Mtoe if we compare it with upper, medium and lower consumers respectively in the year 2050, when its current, 2015, consumption is only 177 Mtoe.  The domestic sector of Punjab would need 957127.5 GWh, 230690 GWh and 107970 GWh as projected for these three tiers of users. The research is especially useful for the policy makers of the future forecasting and developing mitigation strategies for energy demands.