DefinePK

Abstract

This change of climate through global warming of third pole taking the shape of cryosphere is being seen in the Hindu Kush-KarakoramHimalaya (HKKH) region that borders the country on the third pole. A rapid melting of glaciers, thawing of permafrost and alterations in precipitation regime also played a significant role in the creation of glacial lake by moraine, thus making the potential of glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) more probable. This paper is a synthesis of the concept remote sensing as provided by satellite, hydrodynamic modelling and socialeconomic vulnerability analysis as a means of having a comprehensive understanding on the increasing GLOF hazards in the HKKH. The results demonstrate such high regional rates of variation because the eastern and central Himalaya are the fastest with respect to losing glaciers and acquiring lakes but the Karakoram is quite stable with case-by-case risky lakes. Hazard exercises show that, all the discharges of possibly dangerous glacial lakes could exceed more than 15,000 m 3/s, and this would ruin the downstream society and infrastructure. Exposure mapping emphasizes the fact that in excess of seven million people together with major hydropower plans, transportation systems and agriculture systems lie in potential flood areas. Vulnerability analysis reveals also that socioeconomic disparity, insufficient access to early warning and low connectivity are risk factors to disaster hazard primarily in the Hindu Kush and western Himalaya. These conclusions are also feasible as illustrated by historical examples to match the historical events with the simulated hazard cycles. The study concludes that the GLOF hazard in HKKH is a combined socio-environmental problem that must undergo combined adaptation interventions that consider the viability of technological monitoring, localized community-triggered disasters risk reduction, and cross-country regulating.