DefinePK

Abstract

Dengue fever poses a persistent health challenge in Pakistan, marked by cyclic epidemics driven by serotype shifts. This study analyses decade-long trends (2013–2024) in Dengue Virus (DENV) serotype prevalence at Rawalpindi Medical University (RMU) to inform predictive models and improve prevention and control strategies. Our study looked at dengue cases confirmed by lab tests at RMU from 2013 to 2024. We identified the most common dengue serotypes infecting the population each year and tracked changes in serotype patterns over time. A chi-square test was used to analyse the data trends. From 2013 to 2024, the dengue serotype landscape at RMU was predominantly shaped by DENV-2, which began as the sole serotype in 2013 and maintained its dominance, peaking at 72% in 2017. Notable shifts occurred with DENV-3 taking precedence in 2014 and a co-dominance of DENV-1 and DENV-2 in 2019. By 2023, DENV-1 surged to become the dominant serotype at 71%, only for DENV-2 to reclaim supremacy in 2024 with a striking 90%. While data gaps for certain years limit a comprehensive analysis, the study underscores significant trends: the persistent prevalence of DENV-2, the emergence of DENV-1, and the episodic presence of DENV-3. DENV-2 has been predominant in a statistically significant way (p = 0.018) over these years. These findings align with regional dengue patterns, underscoring the interconnected nature of its transmission. The dominance of DENV-2 highlights critical implications for disease severity and targeted public health responses. The data reveals shifting patterns in dengue virus serotypes over time. To stay ahead of potential outbreaks, it's crucial to continuously monitor these changes and adjust our strategies accordingly.