DefinePK

Research Objective

To analyze the land use and land cover (LULC) changes in District Mardan from 2002 to 2022 and to assess the impact of these changes on Land Surface Temperature (LST).

Methodology

The study utilized Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery for LULC and LST analysis. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS 10.8. A supervised classification scheme with the maximum likelihood algorithm was applied to identify LULC changes for 2002 and 2022. LST was extracted from thermal bands using a single-channel algorithm, incorporating corrections for land surface emissivity derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The study also involved correlating LST with spectral indices such as NDVI, NDBI, NDWI, SAVI, and BI, and employing linear regression models to assess relationships.

Methodology Flowchart

                        graph TD
    A[Acquire Landsat 7 & 8 Imagery] --> B[Preprocess Data in ArcGIS 10.8];
    B --> C[Perform Supervised ClassificationMLC for 2002 & 2022];
    C --> D[Extract LST from Thermal Bands];
    D --> E[Correlate LST with Spectral Indices NDVI, NDBI, etc.];
    E --> F[Analyze LULC and LST Changes];
    F --> G[Apply Linear Regression Models];
    G --> H[Draw Conclusions and Recommendations];                    

Discussion

The study highlights the significant impact of urbanization and population growth on LULC changes and LST in Mardan District. The conversion of vegetated and agricultural land to built-up areas contributes to the urban heat island effect. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was found to be the most accurate predictor of LST distribution, while the Urban Index (UI) emerged as a reliable predictor of temperature, with an average absolute error of 1.83 °C in forecasting. The findings emphasize the need for integrated urban planning that balances development with environmental sustainability.

Key Findings

Between 2002 and 2022, built-up areas in Mardan District increased significantly from 165.47 km² to 266.70 km², while vegetation cover declined from 928.76 km² to 793.09 km². Land Surface Temperature (LST) also showed a rising trend, with the average temperature range shifting from 25-36°C in 2002 to 20-41°C in 2022. A strong positive correlation was observed between LST and urban indices (UI), indicating that increased built-up areas and reduced vegetation lead to higher temperatures.

Conclusion

Urbanization has driven substantial LULC changes in Mardan District from 2002 to 2022, characterized by an increase in built-up areas and a decrease in vegetation. This transformation has led to a discernible rise in Land Surface Temperature, with a direct correlation between urban expansion and higher temperatures. The study underscores the importance of incorporating green spaces and water bodies into urban development plans to mitigate environmental impacts and enhance resilience.

Fact Check

1. Built-up area increase: Built-up area increased from 165.47 km² in 2002 to 266.70 km² in 2022. (Confirmed in text)
2. Vegetation decrease: Vegetation cover decreased from 928.76 km² in 2002 to 793.09 km² in 2022. (Confirmed in text)
3. LST range shift: Average LST range shifted from 25-36°C in 2002 to 20-41°C in 2022. (Confirmed in text)

Mind Map