DefinePK

Research Objective

To estimate the gap between actual and desired per capita expenditures on a least-cost nutritious diet for Pakistani children aged 3-10 years, and to assess the impact of an imminent influx of Afghan refugees on food prices and existing consumption patterns.

Methodology

A two-step methodology was employed. First, the cost of a nutritious diet (CoRD) was calculated using the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2018-19 for Pakistan, based on food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs). Prices were estimated using per capita monthly expenditure and quantities consumed from HIES data. Second, price and income elasticities from recent work using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand system (QUAIDs) were used to simulate the effects of increased food prices due to refugee influx on dietary expenditures.

Methodology Flowchart

                        graph TD
    A[Data Collection: HIES 2018-19] --> B[Calculate Cost of Nutritious Diet - CoRD];
    B --> C[Estimate Price and Income Elasticities];
    C --> D[Simulate Impact of Refugee Influx on Food Prices];
    D --> E[Analyze Changes in Dietary Expenditures];
    E --> F[Formulate Policy Recommendations];                    

Discussion

The study highlights the critical issue of unaffordability of nutritious diets for children in Pakistan, exacerbated by potential economic shocks like refugee influx. The methodology accounts for sub-national variations and income disparities, revealing that even higher-income quintiles in certain regions struggle to meet recommended dietary standards. The analysis of food price elasticities provides a quantitative estimate of how refugee-induced demand pressures could impact household food budgets. The findings suggest that current consumption patterns are skewed towards cheaper staples like wheat, leading to deficiencies in essential nutrients from other food groups. Policy interventions are discussed, emphasizing the need to address both existing dietary imbalances and the potential future strain on food security.

Key Findings

- A significant gap exists between actual and desired expenditures on nutritious diets for children aged 3-10 in Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan provinces.
- Under-consumption of nutritious diets is highest in Balochistan Urban and KP Urban, where households spend only 21 percent of the recommended dietary expenditures.
- Cereals (wheat) are over-consumed, while fruits and vegetables are under-consumed across most income groups and regions.
- An influx of over one million refugees is estimated to significantly increase the dietary gap, while an influx under 700,000 would have a less pronounced but still notable impact.
- Subsidies on milk and poultry are suggested to be more effective in balancing diets than subsidies on wheat, which is already over-consumed.

Conclusion

The study concludes that a substantial portion of Pakistani children aged 3-10 years do not consume a nutritious diet due to affordability issues, particularly in KP and Balochistan. The anticipated influx of Afghan refugees poses a risk of further deteriorating this situation by increasing food prices. Targeted policy interventions, such as cash transfers or subsidies on nutrient-rich foods, are recommended to improve dietary diversity and mitigate the impact of price shocks.

Fact Check

- The study uses HIES 2018-19 data for Pakistan.
- The estimated cost of a nutritious diet (CoRD) for Quintile 1 households in Balochistan Urban is 107 percent of their per capita monthly income.
- An influx of 700,000 refugees is estimated to cause a 2.07 percent increase in food prices in KP.

Mind Map